Junior to Senior: Promotion Criteria Backed by Data
A 3.5-year engineer at a 120-person scaleup I worked with last year was "obviously senior" — by everyone's intuition. Her Git and IDE data told a different story: she was shipping more features than any senior on the team, but she wasn't reviewing PRs from people outside her squad, never owned a system-design proposal end-to-end, and her commits clustered in a narrow 2-component surface area. Her manager's gut said senior. The behavioral evidence said: ready in 6-9 months, not today. The 6-month data revisit confirmed it — she got there, and the promotion landed stronger than the intuition-based one would have.
Promotion decisions fail in two directions. Promote-too-early produces under-supported seniors who quietly under-perform and sometimes leave. Promote-too-late loses your best engineers to competitors who saw the readiness first. A 2023 First Round Review study on engineering careers found the single largest driver of senior-engineer regret was "promoted without being ready," cited by 41% of respondents. Data-backed criteria reduce both errors.
